I love Herne Hill. It’s the name of this blog site, after all!
And even though I’m an Estate Agent by profession, I still have the same guilty pleasure that so many people do – trawling the likes of Rightmove and Zoopla, idly looking for the ‘dream home’.
OK I admit – when I do it, there must be some degree of professional curiosity at play for me, personally…
And so perhaps it was that professional curiosity that led me to dig a bit deeper, when I came across an article about property prices in the UK being way ahead of actual recorded sold prices – up to 65% higher, in some parts of the country!!
It led me to look into what the story is here in SE24, to find out whether we followed a similar pattern… and the results were quite shocking!
Because whilst on a professional level I was unconvinced that our sold prices would turn out to be far off our list prices here in Herne Hill, it turns out that – in fact – our averages are totally the opposite! The average ‘Sold Price’ in SE24 is far higher than the average asking price.
So just what is going on? In today’s blog, I explore the particular idiosyncrasies of the Herne Hill Property Market, and unravel the mystery of why our average sold price is blowing the average asking price out of the water.
A closer look at the SE24 property market
The average asking price for a property currently listed in Herne Hill stands at around £717,976. Nevertheless, according to Rightmove data, which is based on Land Registry figures for recorded completed sales, the average sold price is considerably higher: £915,043.
So what’s going on? How can sold prices be outpacing asking prices by nearly £200,000? Especially when most areas of the country show the absolute reverse of this.
To start unpicking this, it’s useful to scrutinise the make-up of our local property market here in Herne Hill and the surrounds, at what type of properties we have here, and what their average prices are.
The Numbers at a Glance
Let’s start by noting some interesting price averages, according to data from Rightmove:
- Flats in Herne Hill currently have an average sale price of around £544,515.
- Terraced houses sell for an average of £1,091,585.
- Semi-detached homes achieve around £1,766,748.
Herne Hill Property Mix vs Market Movement
The disparity between sold and asking price in SE24 will be influenced by the composition of the market at any one time. Not all homes are equally represented in both the ‘for sale’ and ‘recently sold’ categories.
Currently, a large proportion of the properties still for sale in Herne Hill are flats, many of which are taking longer to find a buyer, and then taking longer to reach exchange of contracts.
Meanwhile, more expensive homes – particularly Victorian and Edwardian terraces and 1920s and 1930s semi-detached homes in SE24 – are continuing to sell well, despite their noticeably higher price tags.
What this means is:
- The average asking price in our area is dragged down by a higher proportion of unsold, lower-value flats remaining on the market.
- The average sold price is skewed upwards by the sales of higher-value houses, which are achieving strong results and completing transactions.
Here is a useful chart to illustrate the difference in asking prices vis a vis property types in our South London neighbourhood, taken from the excellent home.co.uk website:
3-month moving averages by property type in SE24
3-month moving averages by property type in SE24
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2025 | Change | ||
| Detached | £1,381,429 | £1,249,988 | -10% | |
| Semi | £1,547,727 | £1,971,429 | +27% | |
| Terraced | £1,144,091 | £1,159,612 | +1% | |
| Flat | £512,563 | £502,678 | -2% | |
| All | £838,662 | £809,552 | -3% | |
So it’s not necessarily that homes are being sold for dramatically more than their asking prices (though that might occasionally be true). It is more the case that different types of homes are either selling or sitting still, and the imbalance creates a statistical illusion, particularly when much lower-priced flats make up an abundance of properties still for sale in the area.
Flats: Plenty on the Market, Slower to Shift
Across Herne Hill, there is no shortage of one- and two-bedroom flats, many of them in handsome converted Victorian or early 20th century buildings or small post-war blocks. However, this segment of the market has been a little slower in recent months.
There are several potential reasons for this:
- First-time buyer affordability has been hit by higher mortgage rates in recent times, and first-time buyers have historically made up a high proportion of buyers in this sector.
- Leasehold concerns and in some cases cladding issues affect buyer confidence in some apartment blocks.
- Landlord purchasers have dropped in recent months, hesitating due to high buy-to-let mortgage rates and impending changes to legislation (see forthcoming Renters Rights Bill which I have written about previously).
- Some flats have simply been overpriced initially, leading to stagnation. This happens in all markets, but perhaps the market for terraced and semi-detached homes has simply fared better over the period for comparison.
This all results in a situation where a larger number of lower-priced properties remain listed, but not selling – leading to a skewing of the data recorded for average ‘on market’ prices compared to ‘sold prices’.
The ‘lower market value’ yet nevertheless ‘unsold’ flats pull down the average asking price across the area.
Houses: Still in Demand, Still Commanding Solid Prices
By contrast, family homes in Herne Hill are still in strong demand. Victorian terraces and large early 20th century and pre-War semi-detached houses are particularly popular with families moving for good schooling in our area.
These buyers tend to:
- Be less sensitive to short-term mortgage rate changes.
- Have larger budgets, often due to previous property sales.
- Be focused on school catchments, space, and long-term value.
These properties often sell quickly and close to their asking prices – or even exceed them in competitive situations. And because they do sell, their higher prices feed directly into the average sold price data.
Timing and Data Lag
Another factor at play is the time lag in terms of when a transaction takes place, and when a property price is recorded on the Land Registry.
- Sold prices are based on completed transactions, which are typically recorded 2-3 months after an offer is accepted.
- Asking prices are based on current listings, which may have been live for weeks or even months without sale, but also include up-to-date data from a fortnight ago – whereas the sold price data, due to time lag, can include sales that transacted perhaps 15 months ago, in what may have been a very different market context.
So when it comes to recorded sold prices, what we’re seeing is not a real-time reflection of buyer demand, but rather a lagged comparison between properties listed today and homes that sold a few months ago, often under different conditions.
A final ‘thought for the day’: why this matters to Property Sellers and Buyers in Herne Hill
If you’re a property seller in Herne Hill, it’s worth understanding how these statistics can mislead.
You might for example hear that the average sold price for a property sits at £915,000 and set your expectations too high, or be lulled into believing it by an over-eager estate agent. But if you’re selling a flat or even a smaller type of property in the area, your competition and buyer pool are very different to somebody selling a four- or five-bedroom Victorian villa or 1920s/30s semi-detached.
Conversely, if you’re a buyer, don’t be disheartened that sold prices appear to be far above current asking prices. It does not mean that all sales are the result of bidding wars pushing property prices beyond your reach.
Much of the current market is made up of more affordable homes that are more accessible than headline figures suggest.
Ultimately, the picture shows that the Herne Hill market is a tale of two market segments: one that has been thriving in recent months, and one that has thrived in the past and probably will again, but which by comparison in recent months has been treading water.
Understanding your position in the property market is key – and if you are selling, pricing it correctly for the buyers available is paramount.
I do love Herne Hill, but of course the local property market is also what I do day in day out – so whether you’re buying or selling, if you do need advice from a local property expert who knows how to read between the lines and can wade through the data, please do not hesitate to get in touch.
That is really interesting – and a great way to break down the data into chunks we can understand. Thanks Wendy