It’s been almost 2 weeks since that meeting; that blowout in The Oval Office; that… well, let’s call it a ‘spectacle’, that gripped us as a nation (gripped the whole world, probably), and has dominated our 24 hour news cycle ever since.
As with so many global events, there is a question to ask: what does it mean for our domestic markets, including our property market, and including our local property market here in Herne Hill.
Let’s take a deeper dive to look into how this extraordinary event and the week that has followed might impact our local housing market in South London – and of course, whether it has an impact on your own potential move, if you are in the market for a property sale or purchase.
What did we just witness?
There are plenty of political commentators, analysts and broadcasters more qualified than we, who can’t yet agree on what we saw last Friday; was it an ambush, or a righteous quarrel, or a genius move in the art of a deal?
I’m not here to comment on that.
(Besides, I am sure you have your own opinion.)
Whatever it was, though, it definitely wasn’t pretty, and what we do know, at least, is what we didn’t see.
We didn’t see the signing of the Rare Earth Minerals agreement that had been slated to take place. Many were vaunting that as being a true step towards a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Could the Oval Office Fall-Out impact the property market here in Herne Hill?
The genteel Victorian and early 20th Century boulevards of Herne Hill are a long way from the war-battered towns and cities of Ukraine.
The artisan delis and independent shops that dot our bustling local high streets would seem a far cry from the pomp of the highest office in the (so called) free world.
Nevertheless, we live in a global village and the reality is that we are connected to what goes on in global affairs. We should know this only too well from the last decade, where we have seen the Brexit Vote, the Covid Pandemic, and of course the economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine three years ago; all these things had a direct impact on our local property market, which we were sucked along with rather than able to control.
History has shown that global political events – even those unfolding thousands of miles away – can have unexpected consequences for local markets. Herne Hill, like the rest of London, is not immune.
So how might the events of last Friday in the White House play a part in our local property market story?
1. A Shock to Market Confidence?
The UK property market thrives on certainty, and that is true for the Edgware market as well—from interest rates to political stability, from economic forecasts to consumer sentiment. Since last Friday, for example, the stock market has seen notable declines. In the US, adding the following days’ talk of trade wars on top of the Oval Office row, the S&P 500 has fallen by 1.2%, wiping out entirely the gains made since Election Day – and these financial markets do not exist in a bubble where we on the ground don’t feel the effect in the long term.
In the short term, though, financial markets in Hong Kong and Europe by contrast have held strong – perhaps as a direct result of nervous investors moving money from American marketplaces into areas that suddenly – and again, at least in the short term – look more stable. This may be a trend we see replicated of course, in terms of the UK property market – but stock markets are obviously quicker to transact, and hence the effect can already be seen.
But aside from financial market confidence, in regards to the housing market, when global or political shocks occur, the immediate effect can be simple hesitation:
- Buyers may pause purchases, unsure whether to move forward.
- Sellers might hold off on listing, waiting for clearer market signals.
- Investors could reassess risk, shifting their focus elsewhere.
I say ‘simple’ hesitation – but hesitation can have one of the most profound effects on the market that we see.
Will this latest political spectacle have such an effect? While the UK property market is resilient, the next few weeks may see a dip in transaction volumes as both buyers and sellers take stock of the situation.
2. The Interest Rate Factor
A more tangible impact could come via interest rates. If this political turmoil leads to instability in the global economy, we could see central banks, including the Bank of England, reassess their rate policies – particularly as the more recent news this week is about the growing risk of a US/Canada, US/Mexico and US/China trade war.
- If markets react negatively and inflation slows, interest rate cuts could arrive sooner than expected, making mortgages cheaper.
- Conversely, if this event triggers economic volatility, rates could stay higher for longer, keeping borrowing costs elevated.
For first-time buyers in Herne Hill, mortgage affordability remains a key issue, and any shift in rates could influence decisions in the coming months.
3. Foreign Investment: Flight to Safety or Caution?
London’s property market – and the South London market included – has long been a magnet for foreign investment. Political instability in major economies often leads international buyers to seek safe-haven assets, and UK property is often high on that list.
- If global investors view London as a stable property play, we may see renewed interest in high-value property, even in suburban pockets like Herne Hill.
- On the flip side, if uncertainty undermines the pound or disrupts the broader economy, overseas buyers may hesitate.
At the moment, the value of the dollar has dropped quickly, and that has put the pound in a stronger position. The stability of the pound might encourage those investors over – but of course, for American investors, the value of their dollar is now not going as far as it did – so there is an instant trade off.
For Herne Hill homeowners looking to sell, the question is whether this moment draws in fresh capital or causes further market jitters.
4. Local Market Resilience: Is South London Insulated?
One of the unique aspects of Herne Hill and surrounding South London areas is their strong local demand. While prime central London properties are more sensitive to global movements, the Herne Hill market is driven by a mix of families, young professionals, and local investors.
- Commuter-friendly areas with green spaces (like Brockwell Park) continue to attract demand.
- Supply constraints mean that even during periods of uncertainty, quality properties still sell.
- Historically, London’s outer boroughs have been less volatile than central postcodes.
This suggests that while macro events may cause short-term caution, the fundamentals of Herne Hill’s property market remain solid in the long run as well as attractive in the short run.
5. What Does This Mean for Your Move?
So, if you’re thinking of buying or selling in Herne Hill, should you wait or move ahead? Here’s how different scenarios could play out:
✅ If you’re a buyer: Now may be a time to look for motivated sellers who are willing to negotiate, especially if short-term uncertainty causes slight dips in asking prices.
✅ If you’re a seller: If your move isn’t urgent, it may be worth watching how the market reacts over the next month. But if you need to sell, pricing competitively and working with an experienced local agent will be key.
✅ If you’re an investor: Any sign of interest rate cuts or renewed foreign interest could mean London remains a strong long-term bet, even amid short-term uncertainty.
Final Thoughts
This latest political event, whatever its long-term consequences, serves as a reminder that global turbulence always has local ripple effects. Whether those ripples turn into waves for the Herne Hill property market depends on how buyers, sellers, and investors react in the coming weeks. For now, the impact has been limited – a bit of a blow to foreign buyers here whose purchases have not gone through yet, as the value of the pound has increased, but other than that no major shake up.
For now, what is the best move? I would say: stay informed, stay flexible, and keep an eye on both the bigger picture and the local details – not least, by keeping an eye on our blog page.
As history shows, the UK property market has a way of adapting, recalibrating, and marching on.