Welcome to July. Officially now more than halfway through 2026!
It’s been a hectic year for the UK property market in general, and the ramifications have been felt here in Herne Hill, with a distinct lack of transactions hitting the Land Registry record here so far since January 1st – only 36, across that period. When it comes to Herne Hill property sales, the local 12-month average is 249 over the last five full years. Just 36 sales year to date in 2026 sounds starkly low.
If we double that number, to reflect what a 12-month period might look like, we get to just 72 transactions – well short of that five-year average.
But it’s not actually quite as simple as that.
Land Registry data suffers a lag, for a start. The most recent monthly record is April this year – which means that what you might assume to be a 6-month figure suddenly looks like only 4 months; in turn that extrapolated 72 sales for the year now looks more like 108, if we multiply four months’ data by three, rather than thinking it is 6 months we should multiply by 2.
108 would, of course, still be a long way short of 249. So, should Herne Hill homeowners be worried?
Let’s take a look at the figures and statistics – both nationally and locally – and see what story there is to be told…
The Story So Far and the Story in June
If you’ve been keeping up with news headlines this year, you may well be thinking that the property market has taken something of a battering this year. And there have been a number of events that have affected confidence and impacted things like inflation and mortgage rates, which have contributed. The major conflict in Iran and the subsequent blocking of the Straits of Hormuz has felt like a constant in the news cycle since February, and that has had real-world consequences for markets, and not least the property market.
Then we’ve had property market-related events, such as the implementation of the Renters’ Rights Act, which threatened to flood the market with ex-rental properties as landlords chose to exit the sector. More recently we’ve experienced a record-breaking heat dome covering much of the UK, the resignation of our Prime Minister, and now a World Cup to distract us all (or, at least, a great many).
Throw in a run of headlines on the theme of “transactions down 40% since 2021” or “an 8.8% year-on-year fall in May sales versus 2025”, and it would be no surprise if anyone concluded that the property market has gone quiet.
And yet…
The thing about data is that there is a lot of it. It really depends what you’re looking at and whether there’s enough context provided around the edges of it.
If you read our article last week, this will sound like a bit of repetition. Transactions have dipped this year – that is true; 40% lower than the same period in 2021, also true. But alarming as that sounds, 2021 was a huge outlier as a year. A stamp duty holiday to galvanise the market, a backlog of movers who’d been prevented from moving home in 2020 due to lockdowns coming forward, and a surge of people fleeing cities for the rural life. Not a normal market. “Transactions down 40%” sounds catastrophic – but judged on its own terms, this year starts to look a lot healthier.
Here’s what the rest of the data is showing:
- Values are up 3.8% on a £-per-square-foot basis, according to Dataloft.
- Asking prices are stable, only 0.5% lower than a year ago, according to Rightmove.
- Listing numbers are high, and more for sale stock isn’t a sign of a market in trouble; it’s a sign of confidence in the mechanics of the property market.
- Net sales agreed at their third-best year-to-date since 2017 – and net sales is more reflective of the market this year, as it is sales agreed since January 1st, as opposed to transactions which in many cases come from sales agreed during the low activity period experienced in the latter months of 2025.
The market has its issues, but there is a lot to report that shows activity levels are actually higher than the prevailing narrative has suggested.
At least, on a national level, which is what those numbers refer to. So how about here in SE24?
Closer to Home: The Herne Hill Property Market in July 2026
The national picture is one thing. What the market is doing locally is what matters to you if you are buying or selling a property in Herne Hill.
Here, property values aren’t quite in keeping with the national momentum. The average sale price has been £754,054 over the past 12 months, a drop of 3% on the same time last year.
When it comes to asking prices on the other hand, they are far ahead of the national story. Remember that national drop in asking prices by an average of 0.5% over the last 12 months? Here in Herne Hill, they have increased by 6%.
Is it a sign of a deluded market? Or is it a sign of growing confidence and optimism?
Well, partly, it’s the latter, but for a specific reason; it is that owners of family houses are choosing to sell in numbers again, having been rather absent from the market over the past several months. This is now reflecting in the average asking price locally, although flats still make up 70% of properties for sale here.
We can feel the momentum of the market changing in real time. June was our busiest month for valuations this year, and the last week of June in particular. Listings are following through at a sensible and sustainable level. And buyers are definitely coming forward.
If you are thinking of moving house in Herne Hill, the market is hotting up just as the weather is. Now, as we head into the final weeks before the school break, if you are ready, it is a good time to strike – no need to wait until the post-summer period if you are serious about getting moved – and especially if you want to move before Christmas, because if you are then it is always a risk to wait until September.
The Bottom Line – and What We’re Watching Next
Once we strip away the comparisons to what was an artificially inflated 2021, you start to see a market picture that looks fairly similar to most other years since 2017.
It is worth paying attention to national price movements – it informs market sentiment, because it is what tends to get reported in places that mass markets can consume such news.
Nevertheless, it is important to track what is happening locally. Not just in terms of sale prices, but in terms of the number of properties becoming available – which is a marker of intent – and also in terms of the composition of the market. It is important to be mindful of wider news stories, but not to be stifled by them or overly buoyed up by them. Noise isn’t the same as substance; this year has had more noise than most. What matters more is local market activity: do you have lots of competition for your home if you are thinking of selling, and are there enough buyers to go round?
So what should we look out for over this coming month of July 2026?
The Labour leadership race – if indeed it is a race – which determines who our next Prime Minister is, will be an interesting one. Markets might react one way – but the public might act another way. One thing we will be paying close attention to is any clarification about Burnham’s plans for stamp duty vis-à-vis council tax. The idea of stamp duty reform is welcomed by many – but could it lead to more expense overall for homeowners? These are the proposals to scrap stamp duty and council tax, and replace both with an annual tax worked out as 0.48% of the total land and property value – welcomed by plenty, but not favoured by many who own properties worth more than £500,000.
If you’re thinking about buying or selling in Herne Hill and the headlines over the past few years have given you pause for thought, our advice remains the same as ever; don’t ignore the market, and don’t ignore the news, but focus on your own needs and circumstances – because if you are serious about moving home, there are buyers out there. Get in touch with the team in Herne Hill for a no-obligation chat about what this means for your move.